As consultants, we rely on data rather than intuition to make recommendations to our clients. For others who have pointed this out look Here, Here, and Here.
As a baseball fan, while the world is relying on the innuendo in the Mitchell report, and their own intuition about who "must" have juiced, I prefer to take a look at the data to see what we know, not what everyone thinks.
After 2 years, and nearly $2MM, the esteemed Senator Mitchell has emerged from his closet- or wherever he has spent the last 2 years trying to find his subpoena power- with a report containing no new information, some information recycled from the FBI, but not considered credible enough to prosecute, some unsubstantiated hearsay, and a partridge in a pear tree.
So lets review some things we do know as fact.
There has never been a demonstrated causational link between enhanced performance at baseball and Performance Enhancing Drugs (PEDs), so called as a class due to the assertion that they enhance performance.
There is significant evidence that they enhance performance in sports like Track & Field or Cycling, where endurance and cardiovascular condition are more important than quick surges of power like bat speed.
In baseball, however, large amounts of muscle mass have traditionally been frowned upon as counter-productive. When Carlton Fisk became the first player to begin a weight training regimen in 1978, the Boston Red Sox attempted to discourage him, on theory that additional muscle mass would slow his bat speed through the strike zone, a key element of power hitting.
What we do know that PED accomplishes, is to speed recovery time from injury. Anecdotally, this should give a much greater advantage to pitchers than to hitters. The act of hurling a projectile at speeds that can exceed 100 MPH as many as 125 time every fifth night, is in essence a controlled repetitive injury to the arm, shoulder, back and legs.
This should, in theory, clear Barry Bonds, the subject of one of the most damning pieces of hearsay in the report.
The owner of the San Francisco Giants, Peter Angelos, testified to the Mitchell Commission that Barry had told him that he had never knowingly taken PED, that in fact the PED he had taken had been taken in the form of a cream, applied in the public view in the locker room, at a time when reporters were present (presumably meant to bolster his claim to be unaware of the substance of this cream), and that with the exception of this one incident had never even unknowingly taken PED.
Peter Angelos was the only person to testify before the Mitchell Commission who implicated anyone without being under the threat of federal prosecution. He also called back 2 days later with his lawyers to recant testimony that he believed to be "inaccurate in light of his recollection of events." Ironic that Peter Angelos was so wary of implicating his prize player, he made his allegations seem that much more sinister, when there is no evidence that Barry was assisted by his alleged PED use.
CORRECTION: Huge brain freeze here folks. Peter Angelos owns the
Orioles. Peter Magowan, the actual subject of the previous
two paragraphs, owns the Giants. Hat tip to Abraham
Friedenberg for the correction.
Which brings us to the "big catch" of the Mitchell Report, Roger Clemens. Clemens, who recently won his 350th game in an era when analysts openly question if anyone will ever reach 300 again, was accused of using PED by a trainer name McNamee of having used HGH and a steroid named Winstrol. Federal prosecutors, who already had McNamee on drug trafficking charges related to the BALCO investigation, offered him leniency in exchange for his testimony against big names. He offered this testimony against Roger Clemens with no corroborating evidence other than some personal checks written to him.
I doubt that MLB players are writing personal checks for their PED.
Ultimately, in an attempt at a PR ploy to be seen as taking a hard line against steroids, baseball- namely commissioner Selig, brought the issue to the forefront, ruined reputations based on hearsay, and espoused the Mitchell Report's "no evidence, no problem" approach to prosecuting PED. Paraphrasing Senator Mitchell, since there is no reliable test for HGH, the absence of a positive drug test does not equal innocence. This is the legal equivalent of saying that since there was no DNA left on victim, the Defendant is guilty.
What is perhaps most maddening is the rush to accuse in the media. Clemens is guilty because the Mitchell Report says he is, because McNamee says he is, but no evidence does.
Normally clear headed reporters like ESPN's Gene Wojciechowski have convicted Clemens based on the fact that other people accused by McNamee have admitted using PED. True. Partially. Also irrelevant.
He also scoffs at Clemens' claim that he was never given a chance to respond to the Mitchell report, because Senator Mitchell claims that all implicated players were given the chance to respond.
Fernando Vina, a retired player, and currently a baseball analyst for Wojciechowski's own ESPN network is one of the players to be implicated by McNamee. To be sure, Vina has no reason to lie. He is a retired marginal player with no contracts or Hall of Fame candidacy to protect.
Based on the allegations in the Mitchell report, Vina admitted to using HGH in 2003. He strenuously denied using Steroids, as accused in the report, and he stated that he never had the opportunity to appear before the Mitchell Commission to respond to allegations.
In other words, Vina discredited McNamee, and bolstered Clemens' claim that he was not given the opportunity to respond. Wojcichowski wrote about how Vina's admission proves Clemens' guilt. Huh? Gene, do me a favor and read a bit of the worldwide leader's coverage before you start typing next time.
The inconvenient truth is that PED were not against MLB rules for most of the period covered by the Mitchell Report. They were illegal for that entire period. The Mitchell Report, inept at proving PED use baseball, articulately proved that prosecution of PED in baseball belongs with the DEA, and not with powerless baseball commissions. And that the media should be looking for the facts, not the story that sells.
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